NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO — It doesn’t appear Mother Nature will lend much help in the short term to the ongoing battle against the region’s many wildfires.
In June’s monthly outlook, the national weather service is forecasting the vast majority of the region to be between two and three degrees Celsius above normal. That includes areas where virtually all of the region’s forest fires are burning.
“When we're talking about temperatures versus normal, we're talking about a combination of daytime highs and overnight lows,” said Steven Flisfeder, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.
“So, if we're seeing a plus-two or plus-three above seasonal, that means that both daytime highs and overnight lows — or the combination thereof — is higher than normal,” he continued. “And that means that there's not a lot of relief from any daytime heat overnight.”
“It can be quite significant, depending on where you fall in that range, and how you experience heat as a result.”
There’s expected to be a slight cooling toward more seasonal temperatures for the second week of June (although still above average), Flisfeder said, “but then once we get through the third and fourth week of June, it just goes right back up.”
As far as rainfall predictions long term, Flisfeder said those are harder to pin down.
“There can be a lot of factors that cause the month-long or seasonal (precipitation) forecast to be very wrong, so I want that to be just taken into account that it's a lot harder to predict precipitation over a longer period of time,” he said.
“The guidance is showing neither above or below seasonal across most of Northwestern Ontario,” Flisfeder continued. “But we do see some dry spots.”
“Unfortunately, they happen to be located in areas that are currently experiencing the most dense forest fire activity.”
Numerous wildfires have been raging across the region this year, burning tens of thousands of hectares already and causing evacuations of several First Nations, with the most recent being Sandy Lake on Sunday. Eighteen construction workers also found themselves in extreme danger before being rescued.
Like the weather office is predicting for June, May was also generally above seasonal in terms of temperatures across the Northwest, Flisfeder said, with the exception being areas near Lake Superior.
The region did see “significantly” less precipitation than usual for the month, he added; “most areas were anywhere between 75 and 100 per cent less than where they should have been.”
And the prevalence of wildfire smoke may even hinder the development of storm fronts — which can mean less lightning activity, but also less rain.
“It can help reduce the amount of thunderstorm activity which, as a byproduct, can reduce the total amount of precipitation that falls from that lack of thunderstorm activity,” Flisfeder said.
